Predicting stroke risk after sepsis hospitalization with new-onset atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: New-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) during sepsis is common, but models designed to stratify stroke risk excluded patients with secondary AF. We assessed the predictive validity of CHA2DS2VASc scores among patients with new-onset AF during sepsis and developed a novel stroke prediction model incorporating presepsis and intrasepsis characteristics. METHODS: We included patients ≥40 years old who survived hospitalizations with sepsis and new-onset AF across 21 Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitals from January 1, 2011 to September 30, 2017. We calculated the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for CHA2DS2VASc scores to predict stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) within 1 year after a hospitalization with new-onset AF during sepsis using Fine-Gray models with death as competing risk. We similarly derived and validated a novel model using presepsis and intrasepsis characteristics associated with 1-year stroke/TIA risk. RESULTS: Among 82,748 adults hospitalized with sepsis, 3992 with new-onset AF (median age: 80 years, median CHA2DS2VASc of 4) survived to discharge, among whom 70 (2.1%) experienced stroke or TIA outcome and 1393 (41.0%) died within 1 year of sepsis. The CHA2DS2VASc score was not predictive of stroke risk after sepsis (AUC: 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48-0.52). A newly derived model among 2555 (64%) patients in the derivation set and 1437 (36%) in the validation set included 13 variables and produced an AUC of 0.61 (0.49-0.73) in derivation and 0.54 (0.43-0.65) in validation. CONCLUSION: Current models do not accurately stratify risk of stroke following new-onset AF secondary to sepsis. New tools are required to guide anticoagulation decisions following new-onset AF in sepsis.

Eligibility and Potential Benefit of Transcatheter Edge-to-Edge Repair in a Contemporary Cohort With Heart Failure: Evidence From a Large Integrated Health Care Delivery System.

Background: The eligibility and potential benefit of transcatheter edge-to-edge repair (TEER) in addition to guideline-directed medical therapy to treat moderate-severe or severe secondary mitral regurgitation (MR) has not been reported in a contemporary heart failure (HF) population. Methods: Eligibility for TEER based on Food and Drug Administration (FDA) labeling: (1) HF symptoms, (2) moderate-severe or severe MR, (3) left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 20% to 50%, (4) left ventricular end-systolic dimension 7.0 cm, and (5) receiving GDMT (blocker + angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker). The proportion (%) of patients eligible for TEER. The hypothetical number needed to treat to prevent or postpone adverse outcomes was estimated using relative risk reductions from published hazard ratios in the registration trial and the observed event rates. Results: We identified 50,841 adults with HF and known LVEF. After applying FDA criteria, 2461 patients (4.8%) were considered eligible for transcatheter mitral valve replacement (FDA+), with the vast majority of patients excluded (FDA-) based on a lack of clinically significant MR (N = 47,279). FDA+ patients had higher natriuretic peptide levels and were more likely to have a prior HF hospitalization compared to FDA- patients. Although FDA+ patients had a more dilated left ventricle and lower LVEF, median (25th-75th) left ventricular end-systolic dimension (cm) was low at 4.4 (3.7-5.1) and only 30.8% had severely reduced LVEF. FDA+ patients were at higher risk of HF-related morbidity and mortality. The estimated number needed to treat to potentially prevent or postpone all-cause hospitalization was 4.4, 8.8 for HF hospitalization, and 5.3 for all-cause death at 24 months in FDA+ patients. Conclusions: There is a low prevalence of TEER eligibility based on FDA criteria primarily due to absence of moderate-severe or severe MR. FDA+ patients are a high acuity population and may potentially derive a robust clinical benefit from TEER based on pivotal studies. Additional research is necessary to validate the scope of eligibility and comparative effectiveness of TEER in real-world populations.

Identification of recurrent atrial fibrillation using natural language processing applied to electronic health records.

AIMS: This study aimed to develop and apply natural language processing (NLP) algorithms to identify recurrent atrial fibrillation (AF) episodes following rhythm control therapy initiation using electronic health records (EHRs). METHODS AND RESULTS: We included adults with new-onset AF who initiated rhythm control therapies (ablation, cardioversion, or antiarrhythmic medication) within two US integrated healthcare delivery systems. A code-based algorithm identified potential AF recurrence using diagnosis and procedure codes. An automated NLP algorithm was developed and validated to capture AF recurrence from electrocardiograms, cardiac monitor reports, and clinical notes. Compared with the reference standard cases confirmed by physicians' adjudication, the F-scores, sensitivity, and specificity were all above 0.90 for the NLP algorithms at both sites. We applied the NLP and code-based algorithms to patients with incident AF (n = 22 970) during the 12 months after initiating rhythm control therapy. Applying the NLP algorithms, the percentages of patients with AF recurrence for sites 1 and 2 were 60.7% and 69.9% (ablation), 64.5% and 73.7% (cardioversion), and 49.6% and 55.5% (antiarrhythmic medication), respectively. In comparison, the percentages of patients with code-identified AF recurrence for sites 1 and 2 were 20.2% and 23.7% for ablation, 25.6% and 28.4% for cardioversion, and 20.0% and 27.5% for antiarrhythmic medication, respectively. CONCLUSION: When compared with a code-based approach alone, this study's high-performing automated NLP method identified significantly more patients with recurrent AF. The NLP algorithms could enable efficient evaluation of treatment effectiveness of AF therapies in large populations and help develop tailored interventions.

Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations.

BACKGROUND: Multivariable equations are recommended by primary prevention guidelines to assess absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current equations have several limitations. Therefore, we developed and validated the American Heart Association Predicting Risk of CVD EVENTs (PREVENT) equations among US adults 30 to 79 years of age without known CVD. METHODS: The derivation sample included individual-level participant data from 25 data sets (N=3 281 919) between 1992 and 2017. The primary outcome was CVD (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure). Predictors included traditional risk factors (smoking status, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, antihypertensive or statin use, and diabetes) and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Models were sex-specific, race-free, developed on the age scale, and adjusted for competing risk of non-CVD death. Analyses were conducted in each data set and meta-analyzed. Discrimination was assessed using the Harrell C-statistic. Calibration was calculated as the slope of the observed versus predicted risk by decile. Additional equations to predict each CVD subtype (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure) and include optional predictors (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c), and social deprivation index were also developed. External validation was performed in 3 330 085 participants from 21 additional data sets. RESULTS: Among 6 612 004 adults included, mean±SD age was 53±12 years, and 56% were women. Over a mean±SD follow-up of 4.8±3.1 years, there were 211 515 incident total CVD events. The median C-statistics in external validation for CVD were 0.794 (interquartile interval, 0.763-0.809) in female and 0.757 (0.727-0.778) in male participants. The calibration slopes were 1.03 (interquartile interval, 0.81-1.16) and 0.94 (0.81-1.13) among female and male participants, respectively. Similar estimates for discrimination and calibration were observed for atherosclerotic CVD- and heart failure-specific models. The improvement in discrimination was small but statistically significant when urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, hemoglobin A1c, and social deprivation index were added together to the base model to total CVD (ΔC-statistic [interquartile interval] 0.004 [0.004-0.005] and 0.005 [0.004-0.007] among female and male participants, respectively). Calibration improved significantly when the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was added to the base model among those with marked albuminuria (>300 mg/g; 1.05 [0.84-1.20] versus 1.39 [1.14-1.65]; P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: PREVENT equations accurately and precisely predicted risk for incident CVD and CVD subtypes in a large, diverse, and contemporary sample of US adults by using routinely available clinical variables.

Initial antiretroviral therapy regimen and risk of heart failure.

OBJECTIVES: Heart failure risk is elevated in people with HIV (PWH). We investigated whether initial antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens influenced heart failure risk. DESIGN: Cohort study. METHODS: PWH who initiated an ART regimen between 2000 and 2016 were identified from three integrated healthcare systems. We evaluated heart failure risk by protease inhibitor, nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI), and integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-based ART, and comparing two common nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors: tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (tenofovir) and abacavir. Follow-up for each pairwise comparison varied (i.e. 7 years for protease inhibitor vs. NNRTI; 5 years for tenofovir vs. abacavir; 2 years for INSTIs vs. PIs or NNRTIs). Hazard ratios were from working logistic marginal structural models, fitted with inverse probability weighting to adjust for demographics, and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: Thirteen thousand six hundred and thirty-four PWH were included (88% men, median 40 years of age; 34% non-Hispanic white, 24% non-Hispanic black, and 24% Hispanic). The hazard ratio (95% CI) were: 2.5 (1.5-4.3) for protease inhibitor vs. NNRTI-based ART (reference); 0.5 (0.2-1.8) for protease inhibitor vs. INSTI-based ART (reference); 0.1 (0.1-0.8) for NNRTI vs. INSTI-based ART (reference); and 1.7 (0.5-5.7) for tenofovir vs. abacavir (reference). In more complex models of cumulative incidence that accounted for possible nonproportional hazards over time, the only remaining finding was evidence of a higher risk of heart failure for protease inhibitor compared with NNRTI-based regimens (1.8 vs. 0.8%; P  = 0.002). CONCLUSION: PWH initiating protease inhibitors may be at higher risk of heart failure compared with those initiating NNRTIs. Future studies with longer follow-up with INSTI-based and other specific ART are warranted.

CKD stage-specific utility of two equations for predicting 1-year risk of ESKD.

BACKGROUND: The Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) and Kaiser Permanente Northwest (KPNW) models have been proposed to predict progression to ESKD among adults with CKD within 2 and 5 years. We evaluated the utility of these equations to predict the 1-year risk of ESKD in a contemporary, ethnically diverse CKD population. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) with CKD Stages 3-5 from January 2008-September 2015. We ascertained the onset of ESKD through September 2016, and calculated stage-specific estimates of model discrimination and calibration for the KFRE and KPNW equations. RESULTS: We identified 108,091 eligible adults with CKD (98,757 CKD Stage 3; 8,384 CKD Stage 4; and 950 CKD Stage 5 not yet receiving kidney replacement therapy), with mean age of 75 years, 55% women, and 37% being non-white. The overall 1-year risk of ESKD was 0.8% (95%CI: 0.8-0.9%). The KFRE displayed only moderate discrimination for CKD 3 and 5 (c = 0.76) but excellent discrimination for CKD 4 (c = 0.86), with good calibration for CKD 3-4 patients but suboptimal calibration for CKD 5. Calibration by CKD stage was similar to KFRE for the KPNW equation but displayed worse calibration across CKD stages for 1-year ESKD prediction. CONCLUSIONS: In a large, ethnically diverse, community-based CKD 3-5 population, both the KFRE and KPNW equation were suboptimal in accurately predicting the 1-year risk of ESKD within CKD stage 3 and 5, but more accurate for stage 4. Our findings suggest these equations can be used in1-year prediction for CKD 4 patients, but also highlight the need for more personalized, stage-specific equations that predicted various short- and long-term adverse outcomes to better inform overall decision-making.

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 and Risk of Heart Failure Subtype: The CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Study.

Rationale & Objective: Heart failure (HF) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality among individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). A large body of evidence from preclinical and clinical studies implicates excess levels of fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) in HF pathogenesis in CKD. It remains unclear whether the relationship between elevated FGF23 levels and HF risk among individuals with CKD varies by HF subtype. Study Design: Prospective cohort study. Settings & Participants: A total of 3,502 participants were selected in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study. Exposure: Baseline plasma FGF23. Outcomes: Incident HF by subtype and total rate of HF hospitalization. HF was categorized as HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF, ejection fraction [EF] ≥ 50%), HF with reduced EF (HFrEF, EF < 50%) and HF with unknown EF (HFuEF). Analytical Approach: Multivariable-adjusted cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate associations between FGF23 and incident hospitalizations for HF by subtype. The Lunn-McNeil method was used to compare hazard ratios across HF subtypes. Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the total rate of HF. Results: During a median follow-up time of 10.8 years, 295 HFpEF, 242 HFrEF, and 156 HFuEF hospitalizations occurred. In multivariable-adjusted cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models, FGF23 was significantly associated with the incidence of HFpEF (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.21-1.64), HFrEF (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.05-1.53), and HFuEF (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.13-1.73) per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in the natural log of FGF23. The Lunn-McNeil method determined that the risk association was consistent across all subtypes. The rate ratio of total HF events increased with FGF23 quartile. In multivariable-adjusted models, compared with quartile 1, FGF23 quartile 4 had a rate ratio of 1.81 (95% CI, 1.28-2.57) for total HF events. Limitations: Self-report of HF hospitalizations and possible lack of an echocardiogram at time of hospitalization. Conclusions: In this large multicenter prospective cohort study, elevated FGF23 levels were associated with increased risks for all HF subtypes. Plain-Language Summary: Heart failure (HF) is a prominent cause of morbidity and mortality in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Identifying potential pathways in the development of HF is essential in developing therapies to prevent and treat HF. In a large cohort of individuals with CKD, the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (N = 3,502), baseline fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23), a hormone that regulates phosphorous, was evaluated in relation to the development of incident and recurrent HF with reduced, preserved, and unknown ejection fraction. In this large multicenter prospective cohort study, elevated FGF23 levels were associated with increased risk of all HF subtypes. These findings demonstrate the need for further research into FGF23 as a target in preventing the development of HF in individuals with CKD.

Gaps in guideline-recommended anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation and elevated thromboembolic risk within an integrated healthcare delivery system.

BACKGROUND: Atrial Fibrillation (AF) is the leading cause of stroke, which can be reduced by 70% with appropriate oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy. Nationally, appropriate anticoagulation rates for patients with AF with elevated thromboembolic risk are as low as 50% even across the highest stroke risk cohorts. This study aims to evaluate the variability of appropriate anticoagulation rates among patients by sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status within the Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States (KPMAS). METHODS: This retrospective study investigated 9513 patients in KPMAS's AF registry with CHADS2 score ≥ 2 over a 6-month period in 2021. RESULTS: Appropriately anticoagulated patients had higher rates of diabetes, prior stroke, and congestive heart failure than patients who were not appropriately anticoagulated. There were no significant differences in anticoagulation rates between males and females (71.8% vs. 71.6%%, [OR] 1.01; 95% CI, 0.93-1.11; P = .76) nor by SES-SVI quartiles. There was a statistically significant difference between Black and White patients (70.8% vs. 73.1%, P = .03) and Asian and White patients (68.3% vs. 71.6%, P = .005). After adjusting for CHADS2, this difference persisted for Black and White participants with CHADS2 scores of ≤3 (62.6% vs. 70.6%, P < .001) and for Asian and White participants with CHADS2 scores > 5 (68.0% vs. 79.3%, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Black and Asian patients may have differing rates of appropriate anticoagulation when compared with White patients. Characterizing such disparities is the first step towards addressing treatment gaps in AF.

Proteomics of CKD progression in the chronic renal insufficiency cohort.

Progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) portends myriad complications, including kidney failure. In this study, we analyze associations of 4638 plasma proteins among 3235 participants of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study with the primary outcome of 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate or kidney failure over 10 years. We validate key findings in the Atherosclerosis Risk in the Communities study. We identify 100 circulating proteins that are associated with the primary outcome after multivariable adjustment, using a Bonferroni statistical threshold of significance. Individual protein associations and biological pathway analyses highlight the roles of bone morphogenetic proteins, ephrin signaling, and prothrombin activation. A 65-protein risk model for the primary outcome has excellent discrimination (C-statistic[95%CI] 0.862 [0.835, 0.889]), and 14/65 proteins are druggable targets. Potentially causal associations for five proteins, to our knowledge not previously reported, are supported by Mendelian randomization: EGFL9, LRP-11, MXRA7, IL-1 sRII and ILT-2. Modifiable protein risk markers can guide therapeutic drug development aimed at slowing CKD progression.

Developing Clinical Risk Prediction Models for Worsening Heart Failure Events and Death by Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction.

Background There is a need to develop electronic health record-based predictive models for worsening heart failure (WHF) events across clinical settings and across the spectrum of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Methods and Results We studied adults with heart failure (HF) from 2011 to 2019 within an integrated health care delivery system. WHF encounters were ascertained using natural language processing and structured data. We conducted boosted decision tree ensemble models to predict 1-year hospitalizations, emergency department visits/observation stays, and outpatient encounters for WHF and all-cause death within each LVEF category: HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF) (LVEF <40%), HF with mildly reduced EF (LVEF 40%-49%), and HF with preserved EF (LVEF ≥50%). Model discrimination was evaluated using area under the curve and calibration using mean squared error. We identified 338 426 adults with HF: 61 045 (18.0%) had HF with reduced EF, 49 618 (14.7%) had HF with mildly reduced EF, and 227 763 (67.3%) had HF with preserved EF. The 1-year risks of any WHF event and death were, respectively, 22.3% and 13.0% for HF with reduced EF, 17.0% and 10.1% for HF with mildly reduced EF, and 16.3% and 10.3% for HF with preserved EF. The WHF model displayed an area under the curve of 0.76 and mean squared error of 0.13, whereas the model for death displayed an area under the curve of 0.83 and mean squared error of 0.076. Performance and predictors were similar across WHF encounter types and LVEF categories. Conclusions We developed risk prediction models for 1-year WHF events and death across the LVEF spectrum using structured and unstructured electronic health record data and observed no substantial differences in model performance or predictors except for death, despite differences in underlying HF cause.

The ASSESS-AKI Study found urinary epidermal growth factor is associated with reduced risk of major adverse kidney events.

Biomarkers of tubular function such as epidermal growth factor (EGF) may improve prognostication of participants at highest risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD) after hospitalization. To examine this, we measured urinary EGF (uEGF) from samples collected in the Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae of Acute Kidney Injury (ASSESS-AKI) Study, a multi-center, prospective, observational cohort of hospitalized participants with and without AKI. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the association of uEGF/Cr at hospitalization, three months post-discharge, and the change between these time points with major adverse kidney events (MAKE): CKD incidence, progression, or development of kidney failure. Clinical findings were paired with mechanistic studies comparing relative Egf expression in mouse models of kidney atrophy or repair after ischemia-reperfusion injury. MAKE was observed in 20% of 1,509 participants over 4.3 years of follow-up. Each 2-fold higher level of uEGF/Cr at three months was associated with decreased risk of MAKE (adjusted hazards ratio 0.46, 95% confidence interval: 0.39-0.55). Participants with the highest increase in uEGF/Cr from hospitalization to three-month follow-up had a lower risk of MAKE (adjusted hazards ratio 0.52; 95% confidence interval: 0.36-0.74) compared to those with the least change in uEGF/Cr. A model using uEGF/Cr at three months combined with clinical variables yielded moderate discrimination for MAKE (area under the curve 0.73; 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.77) and strong discrimination for kidney failure at four years (area under the curve 0.96; 95% confidence interval: 0.92-1.00). Accelerated restoration of Egf expression in mice was seen in the model of adaptive repair after injury, compared to a model of progressive atrophy. Thus, urinary EGF/Cr may be a biomarker of distal tubular health, with higher concentrations and increased uEGF/Cr post-discharge independently associated with reduced risk of MAKE in hospitalized patients.

Clinical Outcomes of Direct Oral Anticoagulants vs Warfarin for Extended Treatment of Venous Thromboembolism.

Importance: Extending the duration of oral anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) beyond the initial 3 to 6 months of treatment is often recommended, but it is not clear whether clinical outcomes differ when using direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) or warfarin. Objective: To compare rates of recurrent VTE, hospitalizations for hemorrhage, and all-cause death among adults prescribed DOACs or warfarin whose anticoagulant treatment was extended beyond 6 months after acute VTE. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was conducted in 2 integrated health care delivery systems in California with adults aged 18 years or older who received a diagnosis of incident VTE between 2010 and 2018 and completed at least 6 months of oral anticoagulant treatment with DOACs or warfarin. Patients were followed from the end of the initial 6-month treatment period until discontinuation of anticoagulation, occurrence of an outcome event, health plan disenrollment, or end of the study follow-up period (December 31, 2019). Data were obtained from the Kaiser Permanente Virtual Data Warehouse and electronic health records. Data analysis was conducted from March 2022 to January 2023. Exposure: Dispensed prescriptions of DOACs or warfarin after a 6-month initial treatment for VTE. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were rates per 100 person-years of recurrent VTE, hospitalizations for hemorrhage, and all-cause death. Comparison of DOAC and warfarin outcomes were performed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: A total of 18 495 patients (5477 [29.6%] aged ≥75 years; 8973 women [48.5%]) with VTE who were treated with at least 6 months of anticoagulation were identified, of whom 2134 (11.5%) were receiving DOAC therapy and 16 361 (88.5%) were receiving warfarin therapy. Unadjusted event rates were lower for patients receiving DOAC therapy than warfarin therapy for recurrent VTE (event rate per 100 person-years, 2.92 [95% CI, 2.29-3.54] vs 4.14 [95% CI, 3.90-4.38]), hospitalizations for hemorrhage (event rate per 100 person-years, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.66-1.39] vs 1.81 [95% CI, 1.66-1.97]), and all-cause death (event rate per 100 person-years, 3.79 [95% CI, 3.09-4.49] vs 5.40 [95% CI, 5.13-5.66]). After multivariable adjustment, DOAC treatment was associated with a lower risk of recurrent VTE (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.66; 95% CI, 0.52-0.82). For patients prescribed DOAC treatment, the risks of hospitalization for hemorrhage (aHR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.54-1.17) and all-cause death (aHR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.78-1.19) were not significantly different than those for patients prescribed warfarin treatment. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of patients with VTE who continued warfarin or DOAC anticoagulation beyond 6 months, DOAC treatment was associated with a lower risk of recurrent VTE, supporting the use of DOACs for the extended treatment of VTE in terms of clinical outcomes.

Physician assessment of aortic stenosis severity, quantitative parameters, and long-term outcomes: Results from the KP-VALVE project.

BACKGROUND: Contemporary outcomes for aortic stenosis (AS) and the association between physician-assessed AS severity and quantitative parameters is poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate AS natural history, compare outcomes for physicians' AS assessment vs. quantitative parameters, and identify AS parameters with the most explanatory power. METHODS: We ascertained physician-assessed AS severity, echocardiographic parameters, and clinical data for 546,769 patients from 2008-2018, examined multivariable associations of physician-assessed AS severity and number of quantitative severe AS parameters with death, cardiovascular hospitalization, and aortic valve replacement, and estimated the relative contribution of different quantitative AS parameters on outcomes. RESULTS: Among 49,604 AS patients (mean [SD] age 77 [11] years), 17.6% had moderate, 3.6% moderate-severe, and 9.4% severe AS. During median 3.7 [IQR 1.7-6.8] years, physician-assessed AS severity strongly correlated with outcomes, with moderate AS patients tracking closest to mild AS, and moderate-to-severe AS patients more comparable to severe AS. Although the number of quantitative severe AS parameters strongly predicted outcomes (adjusted HR [95% CI] for death 1.40 [1.34-1.46], 1.70 [1.56-1.85], and 1.78 [1.63-1.94] for 1, 2, and 3 parameters, respectively), aortic valve area <1.0 cm2 was the most frequent severe AS parameter, explained the largest relative contribution (67%), and was common in patients classified as moderate (21%) or moderate-severe (56%) AS. CONCLUSIONS: Physician-assessed AS severity predicts outcomes, with cumulative effects for each severe AS parameter. Moderate AS includes a wide spectrum of patients, with discordant AVA <1.0 cm2 being both common and predictive. Better identification of non-classical severe AS phenotypes may improve outcomes.

Early Pregnancy Systolic Blood Pressure Patterns Predict Early- and Later-Onset Preeclampsia and Gestational Hypertension Among Ostensibly Low-to-Moderate Risk Groups.

Background Clinical risk factors, a single blood pressure (BP) measurement, current biomarkers, and biophysical parameters can effectively identify risk of early-onset preeclampsia but have limited ability to predict later-onset preeclampsia and gestational hypertension. Clinical BP patterns hold promise to improve early risk stratification for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Methods and Results After excluding preexisting hypertension, heart, kidney, or liver disease, or prior preeclampsia, the retrospective cohort (n=249 892) all had systolic BP <140 mm Hg and diastolic BP <90 mm Hg or a single BP elevation ≤20 weeks' gestation, prenatal care at <14 weeks' gestation, and a still or live birth delivery at Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitals (2009-2019). The sample was randomly split into development (N=174 925; 70%) and validation (n=74 967; 30%) data sets. Predictive performance of multinomial logistic regression models for early-onset (<34 weeks) preeclampsia, later-onset (≥34 weeks) preeclampsia, and gestational hypertension was evaluated in the validation data set. There were 1008 (0.4%), 10 766 (4.3%), and 11 514 (4.6%) patients with early-onset preeclampsia, later-onset preeclampsia, and gestation hypertension, respectively. Models with 6 systolic BP trajectory groups (0-20 weeks' gestation) plus standard clinical risk factors performed substantially better than risk factors alone to predict early- and later-onset preeclampsia and gestational hypertension, with C-statistics (95% CIs) of 0.747 (0.720-0.775), 0.730 (0.722-0.739), and 0.768 (0.761-0.776) versus 0.688 (0.659-0.717), 0.695 (0.686-0.704) and 0.692 (0.683-0.701), respectively, with excellent calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.99, 0.99, and 0.74, respectively). Conclusions Early pregnancy BP patterns up to 20 weeks' gestation plus clinical, social, and behavioral factors more accurately discriminate hypertensive disorders of pregnancy risk among low-to-moderate risk pregnancies. Early pregnancy BP trajectories improve risk stratification to reveal higher-risk individuals hidden within ostensibly low-to-moderate risk groups and lower-risk individuals considered at higher risk by US Preventive Services Task Force criteria.

Outcomes of Adults with Severe Aortic Stenosis Undergoing Urgent or Emergent vs. Elective Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement Within an Integrated Health Care Delivery System.

Background: Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) may be used to urgently or emergently treat severe aortic stenosis, but outcomes for this high-risk population have not been well-characterized. We sought to describe the incidence, clinical characteristics, and outcomes of patients undergoing urgent or emergent vs. elective TAVR. Methods: We identified all adults who received TAVR for primary aortic stenosis between 2013 and 2019 within an integrated health care delivery system in Northern California. Elective or urgent/emergent procedure status was based on standard Society of Thoracic Surgeons definitions. Data were obtained from electronic health records, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons-American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry, and state/national reporting databases. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models were performed. Results: Among 1564 eligible adults that underwent TAVR, 81 (5.2%) were classified as urgent/emergent. These patients were more likely to have heart failure (63.0% vs. 47.4%), reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (21.0% vs. 11.8%), or a prior aortic valve balloon valvuloplasty (13.6% vs. 5.0%) and experienced higher unadjusted rates of 30-day and 1-year morbidity and mortality. Urgent/emergent TAVR status was independently associated with non-improved quality of life at 30-days (hazard ratio, 4.87; p < 0.01) and acute kidney injury within 1-year post-TAVR (hazard ratio, 2.11; p = 0.01). There was not a significant difference in adjusted 1-year mortality with urgent/emergent TAVR. Conclusions: Urgent/emergent TAVR status was uncommon and associated with high-risk clinical features and higher unadjusted rates of short- and long-term morbidity and mortality. Procedure status may be useful to identify patients less likely to experience significant short term improvement in health-related quality of life post-TAVR.

Risk for Chronic Kidney Disease Progression After Acute Kidney Injury: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies associating acute kidney injury (AKI) with more rapid subsequent loss of kidney function had methodological limitations, including inadequate control for differences between patients who had AKI and those who did not. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether AKI is independently associated with subsequent kidney function trajectory among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). DESIGN: Multicenter prospective cohort study. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with CKD (n = 3150). MEASUREMENTS: Hospitalized AKI was defined by a 50% or greater increase in inpatient serum creatinine (SCr) level from nadir to peak. Kidney function trajectory was assessed using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on SCr level (eGFRcr) or cystatin C level (eGFRcys) measured at annual study visits. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.9 years, 433 participants had at least 1 AKI episode. Most episodes (92%) had stage 1 or 2 severity. There were decreases in eGFRcr (-2.30 [95% CI, -3.70 to -0.86] mL/min/1.73 m2) and eGFRcys (-3.61 [CI, -6.39 to -0.82] mL/min/1.73 m2) after AKI. However, in fully adjusted models, the decreases were attenuated to -0.38 (CI, -1.35 to 0.59) mL/min/1.73 m2 for eGFRcr and -0.15 (CI, -2.16 to 1.86) mL/min/1.73 m2 for eGFRcys, and the CI bounds included the possibility of no effect. Estimates of changes in eGFR slope after AKI determined by either SCr level (0.04 [CI, -0.30 to 0.38] mL/min/1.73 m2 per year) or cystatin C level (-0.56 [CI, -1.28 to 0.17] mL/min/1.73 m2 per year) also had CI bounds that included the possibility of no effect. LIMITATIONS: Few cases of severe AKI, no adjudication of AKI cause, and lack of information about nephrotoxic exposures after hospital discharge. CONCLUSION: After pre-AKI eGFR, proteinuria, and other covariables were accounted for, the association between mild to moderate AKI and worsening subsequent kidney function in patients with CKD was small. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health.

Rivaroxaban for Prevention of Thrombotic Events, Hospitalization, and Death in Outpatients With COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) is associated with heightened risks of venous and arterial thrombosis and hospitalization due to respiratory failure. To assess whether prophylactic anticoagulation can safely reduce the frequency of venous and arterial thrombosis, hospitalization, and death in nonhospitalized patients with symptomatic COVID-19 and at least one thrombosis risk factor, we conducted the PREVENT-HD double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized trial (A Study of Rivaroxaban to Reduce the Risk of Major Venous and Arterial Thrombotic Events, Hospitalization and Death in Medically Ill Outpatients With Acute, Symptomatic COVID-19] Infection). METHODS: PREVENT-HD was conducted between August 2020 and April 2022 at 14 US integrated health care delivery networks. A virtual trial design used remote informed consent and clinical monitoring and facilitated data collection through electronic health record integration with a cloud-based research platform. Nonhospitalized patients with symptomatic COVID-19 and at least one thrombosis risk factor were enrolled and randomly assigned to either 10 mg of oral rivaroxaban or placebo daily for 35 days. The primary efficacy outcome was time to first occurrence of a composite of symptomatic venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, acute limb ischemia, non-central nervous system systemic arterial embolism, hospitalization, or death through day 35. The principal safety end point was International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis critical-site or fatal bleeding. The last study visit was on day 49. RESULTS: The study was terminated prematurely because of enrollment challenges and a lower-than-expected blinded pooled event rate. A total of 1284 patients underwent randomization with complete accrual of primary events through May 2022. No patients were lost to follow-up. The primary efficacy outcome occurred in 22 of 641 in the rivaroxaban group and 19 of 643 in the placebo group (3.4% versus 3.0%; hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.63-2.15]; P=0.63). No patient in either group experienced critical-site or fatal bleeding. One patient receiving rivaroxaban had a major bleed. CONCLUSIONS: The study was terminated prematurely after enrollment of 32% of planned accrual because of recruitment challenges and lower-than-expected event rate. Rivaroxaban prescribed for 35 days in nonhospitalized patients with symptomatic COVID-19 at risk for thrombosis did not appear to reduce a composite end point of venous and arterial thrombotic events, hospitalization, and death. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT04508023.

Integrated Analysis of Blood and Urine Biomarkers to Identify Acute Kidney Injury Subphenotypes and Associations With Long-term Outcomes.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a heterogeneous clinical syndrome with varying causes, pathophysiology, and outcomes. We incorporated plasma and urine biomarker measurements to identify AKI subgroups (subphenotypes) more tightly linked to underlying pathophysiology and long-term clinical outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: Multicenter cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 769 hospitalized adults with AKI matched with 769 without AKI, enrolled from December 2009 to February 2015 in the ASSESS-AKI Study. PREDICTORS: 29 clinical, plasma, and urinary biomarker parameters used to identify AKI subphenotypes. OUTCOME: Composite of major adverse kidney events (MAKE) with a median follow-up period of 4.7 years. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Latent class analysis (LCA) and k-means clustering were applied to 29 clinical, plasma, and urinary biomarker parameters. Associations between AKI subphenotypes and MAKE were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 769 AKI patients both LCA and k-means identified 2 distinct AKI subphenotypes (classes 1 and 2). The long-term risk for MAKE was higher with class 2 (adjusted HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.08-1.84]; P=0.01) compared with class 1, adjusting for demographics, hospital level factors, and KDIGO stage of AKI. The higher risk of MAKE among class 2 was explained by a higher risk of long-term chronic kidney disease progression and dialysis. The top variables that were different between classes 1 and 2 included plasma and urinary biomarkers of inflammation and epithelial cell injury; serum creatinine ranked 20th out of the 29 variables for differentiating classes. LIMITATIONS: A replication cohort with simultaneously collected blood and urine sampling in hospitalized adults with AKI and long-term outcomes was unavailable. CONCLUSIONS: We identify 2 molecularly distinct AKI subphenotypes with differing risk of long-term outcomes, independent of the current criteria to risk stratify AKI. Future identification of AKI subphenotypes may facilitate linking therapies to underlying pathophysiology to prevent long-term sequalae after AKI. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Acute kidney injury (AKI) occurs commonly in hospitalized patients and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. The AKI definition lumps many different types of AKI together, but subgroups of AKI may be more tightly linked to the underlying biology and clinical outcomes. We used 29 different clinical, blood, and urinary biomarkers and applied 2 different statistical algorithms to identify AKI subtypes and their association with long-term outcomes. Both clustering algorithms identified 2 AKI subtypes with different risk of chronic kidney disease, independent of the serum creatinine concentrations (the current gold standard to determine severity of AKI). Identification of AKI subtypes may facilitate linking therapies to underlying biology to prevent long-term consequences after AKI.

The association between changes in echocardiography and risk of heart failure hospitalizations and death in adults with chronic kidney disease.

Adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at increased risk for developing heart failure (HF). However, longitudinal cardiac remodeling in CKD has not been well-characterized and its association with HF outcomes remains unknown. We evaluated the association between change in echocardiographic parameters between baseline and year 4 with the subsequent risk of HF hospitalization and death using Cox proportional hazard models in a landmark analysis of a prospective multicenter CKD cohort. Among 2673 participants, mean ± SD age was 61 ± 11 years, with 45% women, and 56% non-white. A total of 472 hospitalizations for HF and 776 deaths occurred during a median (interquartile range) follow-up duration of 8.0 (6.3-9.1) years. Patients hospitalized for HF experienced larger preceding absolute increases in left ventricular (LV) volumes and decreases in LV ejection fraction. Adverse changes in LV ejection fraction, LV cavity volume, LV mass index, and LV geometry were independently associated with an increased risk of HF hospitalization and death. Among adults with CKD, deleterious cardiac remodeling occurs over a relatively short timeframe and adverse remodeling is associated with increased risk of HF-related morbidity and mortality.